Sovereign debt is rising and on a path to exceed 100% of global GDP in the near future, the head of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department warned Wednesday (Oct. 11) in Marrakech, Morocco.
“Worldwide debt levels are generally elevated and borrowing costs are climbing. Global public debt is expected to increase to more than 93% of GDP in 2023 and to rise onwards, mainly due to major economies like the United States and China,” said Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department speaking to reporters at the IMF’s Annual Meetings.
The world is not facing a debt crisis, said Gaspar but there was a need to tackle difficult issues of taxation, spending and investment in the future. Finding a ‘smart balance’ of policies to bring down debt will not be easy but is necessary Gaspar said, launching the IMF’s Fiscal Monito report.
“Countries everywhere are faced with multiple spending pressures and to such conditions political red lines, limited taxation at an insufficient level translate directly into larger deficits that push debt to ever rising heights. Something must give. Policy ambitions must be scaled down or political red lines on taxation moved if public debt, sustainability and financial stability are to prevail. The Fiscal Monitor shows that a smart policy mix is the way out of this trilemma,” said Gaspar.
Gaspar was asked about the looming worry of a government shutdown in the US as lawmakers there have been unable to pass spending legislation needed to keep services funded and running.
“The U.S. has ample policy instruments to control this development and will have to choose to use them. And the U.S. can also introduce a stronger set of budget rules and procedures doing away with the debt ceiling brinkmanship that creates uncertainty and volatility without contributing much to fiscal discipline in the U.S.,” said Gaspar.
The other largest economy causing global debt levels to rise is China, which is facing a challenging property market mountain of debt as well as productivity trending lower as the population ages.
“Everybody knows it has been making headlines that there is real estate and property challenges in China that call for very significant restructuring from the viewpoint of public finances that affects local public finances. And so a reconsideration of the fiscal relations inside China's public administration is a very important priority,” said Gaspar about China.
A copy of the full report is available at IMF.org/FM