IMF WEO Update Growth / Trade / Africa



Edited Package
Washington, DC – Recent
1. B-ROLL: Exterior IMF

Washington, DC --- 16 July 2018
2. Midshot, walk up
3. SOUNDBITE: (English) Maury Obstfeld, IMF Research Department Director:
“The United States has initiated trade actions affecting a broad group of countries and faces retaliation or retaliatory threats from China, the European Union, its NAFTA partners and Japan among others. Our modelling suggests that if current trade policy threats are realized and business confidence falls as a result, global output would be about point five percent below current projections by 2020. That’s half a percentage point.”
4. Cutaway Reporters
5. SOUNDBITE: (English) Maury Obstfeld, IMF Research Department Director:
“It is urgent to address the underlying trends through equity and growth-friendly policies while assuring that macroeconomic tools are available to fight the next economic slow-down. Otherwise the political future will only darken.”
6. Cutaway Reporters
7. SOUNDBITE: (English) Maury Obstfeld, IMF Research Department Director:
“The most positive and durable response to trade tensions would be negotiations with a broad range of trade partners that would open up China even more especially to imports. The tragedy of the current set of tensions is that it risks creating a very bad outcome compared to what we could achieve if countries were to use multilateral mechanisms including the WTO. Think about where are the weaknesses that would prevent them from addressing the tensions and how they could repair those.”
8. Cutaway Reporters
9. SOUNDBITE: (English) Maury Obstfeld, IMF Research Department Director:
“Overall growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will exceed that of population for the next couple years, allowing per capita incomes to rise in many countries. But despite some recovery in commodity prices growth will still fall short of the levels seen in the commodity boom of the 2000’s. Adverse developments in Africa – civil strife or weather related shocks, for example – could intensify outward migration pressures toward Europe.”

Washington, DC – Recent
10. B-ROLL: Exterior IMF
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